Essays on American politics and foreign policy

By Donald E. Nuechterlein

Donald Nuechterlein is a political scientist and writer who resides near Charlottesville, Virginia. He is the author of numerous books on American politics and foreign policy, including

  • Defiant Superpower: The New American Hegemony, 2005
  • America Recommitted: A Superpower Assesses its Role in a Turbulent World, 2000
  • A Cold War Odyssey, 1997

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Donald Nuechterlein

LECTURE: NATIONAL INTEREST AS A BASIS FOR DECISION-MAKING

(Given by Donald Nuechterlein at the University of Virginia's NAVAIR Executive Seminar, June 5, 2007)

July 2007

AMERICA HAS FOUR BROAD INTERESTS THAT AFFECT OUR LIVES

PUBLIC INTEREST IS THE WAY THE FEDERAL AND STATE GOVERNMENTS DEAL WITH THE COUNTRY'S DOMESTIC NEEDS AND PRIORITIES

NATIONAL INTEREST IS A SET OF GOALS THAT THE FEDERALGOVERNMENT PURSUES TO SECURE THE U.S. WELL-BEING IN EXTERNAL RELATIONS

STRATEGIC INTERESTS FLOW FROM THE NATIONAL INTEREST AND EMPHASIZES THE ECONOMIC AND MILITARY REQUIREMENTS NEEDED FOR NATIONAL DEFENSE (INATURAL RESOURCES, TRANSIT RIGHTS, BASES)

PRIVATE INTERESTS INCLUDE U.S. BUSINESSES AND NGOs THAT OPERATE OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY AND CITIZENS LIVING OR TRAVELING ABROAD

THE U.S. HAS FOUR BASIC NATIONAL INTERESTS THAT UNDERGIRD ALL ITS FOREIGN AND NATIONAL SECURITY POLICIES
(Matrix: basic national interests, intensities of interest)

  1. DEFENSE OF HOMELAND: U.S. TERRITORY, POPULATION, POLITICAL SYSTEM
  2. ECONOMIC WELL-BEING: U.S. FINANCIAL STABILITY, STANDARD OF LIVING
  3. FAVORABLE WORLD ORDER: INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
  4. PROMOTION OF U.S. VALUES: FREEDOM, THE RULE OF LAW, HUMAN RIGHTS

THESE ARE LONG-TERM INTERESTS THAT RISE AND FALL OVER DECADES. THEY COMPETE FOR PRIORITY AND FEDERAL BUDGET SUPPORT

IN TIME OF WAR, DEFENSE OF HOMELAND AND WORLD-ORDER RECEIVE THE HIGHEST PRIORITY. IN PEACETIME, ECONOMIC WELL-BEING AND PROMOTION OF VALUES USUALLY GET MORE ATTENTION

FOUR LEVELS OR INTENSITIES OF INTEREST FLOW FROM THESE BASIC GOALS

SURVIVAL, AN IMMINENT THREAT OF ATTACK ON THE HOMELAND

VITAL, A DANGEROUS THREAT TO ECONOMIC/POLITICAL STABILITY ABROAD

MAJOR, IS A SERIOUS CHALLENGE TO KEY U.S. INTERESTS ABROAD

PERIPHERAL, MINOR ISSUES THAT ARE NOT VIEWED AS SERIOUS
(Differentiation of interests)


HOW CAN POLICYMAKERS IDENTIFY WHICH THREATS ARE VITAL TO U.S. INTERESTS, ONES THAT MAY REQUIRE SOME LEVEL OF ARMED FORCE?

EXAMPLES:

  1. A FORCED WITHDRAWAL OF ALL U.S. FORCES FROM IRAQ (like Vietnam)
  2. OUSTER OF PAKISTAN'S CURRENT REGIME BY ANTI-AMERICAN FORCES
  3. IRAN'S PROGRAM TO BUILD NUCLEAR WEAPONS
  4. RENEWED WARFARE IN LEBANON AND IN PALESTINE
  5. OVERTHROW OF FRIENDLY REGIMES IN EGYPT, SAUDI ARABIA, OR JORDAN
  6. NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR CHALLENGES TO JAPAN
  7. A SUDDEN DROP IN PERSIAN GULF OIL EXPORTS TO WORLD MARKETS
  8. RUSSIA'S GROWING BELLIGERANCE TOWARD EASTERN EUROPE

DECIDING WHEN AN INTEREST IS VITAL, AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO WAR
(Value and Cost/Risk factors)

VALUE FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED

PROXIMITY OF THE DANGER (Cuba)

NATURE OF THE THREAT (Kuwait)

ECONOMIC STAKE FOR THE U.S. (oil)

TYPE OF GOVERNMENT SEEKING HELP (South Korea)

EFFECT ON THE BALANCE OF POWER (Iran)

SENTIMENTAL ATTACHMENT, .ETHNIC GROUPS (Israeli, Greek, Hispanic lobbies)

NATIONAL PRESTIGE AT STAKE (Iraq)

SUPPORT OF KEY ALLIES (NATO)

COST-RISK FACTORS TO BE CALCULATED

ECONOMIC COSTS OF HOSTILITIES

ESTIMATED U.S. CASUALTIES

RISK OF ENLARGED CONFLICT

RISK OF PROTRACTED WAR

RISK OF INTERNATIONAL OPPOSITION

RISK OF U.S.PUBLIC OPPOSITION

RISK OF CONGRESSIONAL OPPOSITION

COST OF DEFEAT OR STALEMATE


INSTRUMENTS OF POLICY

LISTED HERE ARE 20 POLICY TOOLS IN ASCENDING ORDER OF PRESSURE THAT CAN BE USED AGAINST AN ENEMY TO COMPEL GOOD BEHAVIOR

POLITICAL-ECONOMIC INSTRUMENTS (11)

POLITICAL-MILITARY INSTRUMENTS (9)

THE TASK OF POLICYMAKERS IS TO MATCH THE LEVEL OF INTEREST WITH AN APPROPRIATE DEGREE OF PRESSURE TO BE EXERTED ON AN ADVERSARY

ENGAGING IN "BLUFF," OR A SHOW OF FORCE WITH NO INTENTION TO FOLLOW THROUGH, IS DANGEROUS POLICY FOR A SUPERPOWER (LEBANON, SOMALIA)

DECIDING THE INTENSITY OF INTEREST IS AN ART, NOT A SCIENCE BECAUSE HUMAN JUDGMENTS REMAIN THE KEY TO SOUND DECISION-MAKING


TWO CASES, AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ, TO ILLUSTRATE USE OF THE MATRIX

(Matrix)

* * * *

(TEAMS WORK ON FIVE SCENARIOS AND REPORT TO FULL SEMINAR)

CONCLUSION: WHERE DO WE STAND TODAY IN OUR FOREIGN POLICY?

  1. We are at a crossroads in foreign policy similar to what Richard Nixon faced in 1969 over Vietnam. The public is tired after four years of war in Iraq, and wants a troop withdrawal. The crucial question is whether the country will elect a president and a Congress in 2008 who decide to avoid interventions abroad. If this occurs, the world will become a more dangerous place. (Tony Blair in Washington)
  2. America's post-World War II hegemonic power is in decline, at a time when the Bush administration plans to expand the military's anti-terrorism role world-wide. A major reason for the decline in U.S. influence is the unwillingness of key NATO allies to support military operations that cause casualties. France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, are not engaged in combat in Afghanistan, where the U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia, and Poland are fighting Taliban insurgents.
  3. The world, including Russia, China, and India, faces a long-term major threat from Islamic fundamentalists whose leaders are determined to oust western influence and establish Islamic regimes in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Al Qaeda is the most extreme of these groups, and its reach is expanding. The key question for our generation is whether the free world is up to the task of facing this challenge over many decades.

File last modified on Monday, 08-JULY-2007 6:10 PM EST

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