Essays on American politics and foreign policy By Donald E. Nuechterlein Donald Nuechterlein is a political scientist and writer who resides near Charlottesville, Virginia. He is the author of numerous books on American politics and foreign policy, including Defiant Superpower: The New American Hegemony, 2005 America Recommitted: A Superpower Assesses its Role in a Turbulent World, 2000 A Cold War Odyssey, 1997 INDEX CONTACT

NATIONAL INTERESTS AND FOREIGN POLICY FORMULATION

NOVEMBER 2000

NOTE: The following is the outline of a lecture delivered by Dr. Donald Nuechterlein on November 7, , 2000, at the University of Virginia, to the Naval Air Executive Seminar on National Security. It is based in part on Chapter 1 or his book, America Recommitted: A Superpower Assesses Its Role in a Turbulent World (University Press of Kentucky, , 2000).

MAJOR INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGES THAT WILL TEST THE NEXT PRESIDENT

• DEALING WITH ISLAMIC RADICALISM IN THE MIDDLE EAST, ASIA, AFRICA
• LIVING WITH NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION: INDIA, PAKISTAN, IRAN, N. KOREA
• MANAGING CHINA'S ASPIRATIONS FOR PREEMINENT POWER IN EAST ASIA
• ENCOURAGING RUSSIA TO BE A COOPERATIVE POWER IN EUROPE, ASIA
• COPING WITH BOTH DRUG TRAFFICKERS AND INSURGENTS IN COLOMBIA
• REDUCING MASSIVE U.S. TRADE DEFICITS AND UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES

"NATIONAL INTEREST" AS A BASIS FOR MAKING FOREIGN POLICY DECISIONS

• THE IDEA DATES FROM 17th CENTURY AND EMERGENCE OF NATION-STATES
• NATIONAL INTEREST SHOULD BE DISTINGUISHED FROM PUBLIC INTEREST
1. IT IS THE SET OF GOALS A NATION OR COUNTRY STRIVES FOR IN THE WORLD, AS CONTRASTED WITH ITS DOMESTIC NEEDS AND PRIORITIES
2. STRATEGIC INTERESTS FLOW FROM A COUNTRY'S VIEW OF NATIONAL INTERESTS, WITH FOCUS ON MILITARY AND ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS

DEFINING UNITED STATES NATIONAL INTERESTS IN THE 21ST CENTURY

• U.S. AND ALL MAJOR POWERS DISPLAY FOUR BASIC NATIONAL INTERESTS
1. DEFENSE OF HOMELAND: TERRITORY, CITIZENS, POLITICAL SYSTEM
2. ECONOMIC WELL-BEING: ECONOMIC STABILITY, LIVING STANDARDS
3. FAVORABLE WORLD ORDER: APPRAISAL OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
4. PROMOTION OF VALUES: IN AMERICA, DEMOCRACY-HUMAN RIGHTS
• THESE ARE LONG TERM INTERESTS, AND EACH RISES AND DECLINES OVER DECADES. THEY OVERLAP AND COMPETE FOR ATTENTION AND RESOURCES
• DETERMINING THE INTENSITY LEVEL OF THESE FOUR BASIC INTERESTS
1. SURVIVAL LEVEL: THE THREAT OF IMMINENT ATTACK ON HOMELAND
2. VITAL LEVEL: A DANGEROUS THREAT TO THE NATIONAL WELL-BEING
3. MAJOR LEVEL: SERIOUS CHALLENGES ABROAD TO U.S. INTERESTS
4. PERIPHERAL LEVEL: NOT SERIOUS, BUT STILL BOTHERSOME ISSUES

WHEN IS AN INTEREST VITAL, POSSIBLY REQUIRING THE USE OF ARMED FORCE?

• EIGHT VALUE FACTORS WHICH INCLUDE KEY OBJECTIVES OF POLICY
1. PROXIMITY OF THE DANGER
2. NATURE OF THE THREAT
3. ECONOMIC STAKE (FOR THE U.S.)
4. TYPE OF GOVERNMENT ASKING FOR HELP
5. SENTIMENTAL ATTACHMENT OF INTEREST GROUPS
6. EFFECT ON THE REGIONAL BALANCE OF POWER
7. NATIONAL PRESTIGE AT STAKE
8. SUPPORT OF KEY ALLIES
• EIGHT COST-RISK FACTORS WHICH ASSESS COSTS, IF HOSTILITIES OCCUR
1. ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL COSTS
2. ESTIMATED CASUALTIES
3. RISK OF ENLARGED CONFLICT
4. COSTS OF PROTRACTED CONFLICT
5. COSTS OF A DEFEAT, OR STALEMATE
6. PROBABILITY OF PUBLIC OPPOSITION
7. RISK OF INTERNATIONAL OPPOSITION
8. DANGER OF CONGRESSIONAL OPPOSITION
• CURRENT EXAMPLES OF TRADEOFFS: KOSOVO, COLOMBIA, TAIWAN, ISRAEL
1. IF VALUE MIGHT BE "VITAL," POLICY MAKERS MUST DECIDE WHETHER THE VALUE FACTORS ARE OUTWEIGHED BY THE POTENTIAL COSTS
2. EXPERTS SHOULD TALLY THE SCORES OF VALUE FACTORS, AND MATCH THESE WITH TALLY OF COST/RISK FACTORS BEFORE DECISION IS MADE
3. THIS PROCESS IS NOT A SCIENCE BUT INSTEAD A REASONABLE METHOD FOR APPROXIMATING THE POLICY RISKS IN A PRESIDENTIAL DECISION
4. CASES: FALKLAND ISLANDS (1982), PANAMA (1989); PERSIAN GULF (1990)
5. KOSOVO (1999) ILLUSTRATES AN AMBIGUOUS DECISION ON INTERESTS

POLICY TOOLS, INSTRUMENTS, IN SUPPORT OF U.S. FOREIGN POLICIES

• POLITICAL-ECONOMIC INSTRUMENTS
1. DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES
2. EDUCATIONAL AND CULTURAL EXCHANGE PROGRAMS
3. HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
4. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS
5. INFORMATION AND PROPAGANDA EFFORTS
6. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE
7. MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO FRIENDLY STATES
8. RESTRICTIVE TRADE POLICIES
9. COVERT-CLANDESTINE ACTIONS
10. APPEAL TO U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL ON A THREAT TO PEACE
11. TRADE EMBARGO AND ECONOMIC SANCTIONS
• POLITICAL-MILITARY INSTRUMENTS IN SUPPORT OF U.S. FOREIGN POLICY
1. MILITARY SHOW OF STRENGTH
2. INCREASED MILITARY SURVEILLANCE
3. SUSPENSION OR BREAK IN DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS
4. BLOCKADE, QUARANTINE, MINING OF FOREIGN PORTS
5. LIMITED USE OF BOMBING SELECTED TARGETS
6. LOCAL USE OF CONVENTIONAL GROUND FORCES
7. CALL-UP OF RESERVES, HEIGHTENED INTERNAL SECURITY
8. THREATENED USE OF TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
9. PREPARATION TO USE MASSIVE DESTRUCTION WEAPONS
• THESE POLICY INSTRUMENTS ARE IN ASCENDING ORDER OF PRESSURE THAT CAN BE BROUGHT TO BEAR ON AN ADVERSARY TO COMPEL GOOD BEHAVIOR. THE TASK OF A POLICY MAKER IS TO MATCH THE LEVEL OF INTEREST WITH THE APPROPRIATE DEGREE OF PRESSURE TO BE EMPLOYED IN A SPECIFIC CASE

CONCLUSIONS

• THE U.S. IS OVEREXTENDED AROUND THE WORLD IN TERMS OF AMERICAN TROOPS AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY FOR MULTIPLE PEACE-ENFORCING TASKS
• GLOBAL ECONOMY RELIES HEAVILY ON U.S. WILLINGNESS TO PAY THE LARGEST SHARE COSTS, INCLUDING ITS MASSIVE IMPORTS FROM ABROAD
• TO MAINTAIN THIS GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM, U.S. POWER MUST OCCASIONALLY BE USED TO CURB TROUBLEMAKERS, IN THE BALKANS, PERSIAN GULF, THE CARIBBEAN, NORTH KOREA, YEMEN, TAIWAN STRAIT
• AMERICANS CURRENTLY LIVE WITH AN ILLUSION THAT OUR WEALTH AND POWER CAN PERSUADE ANY ADVERSARY TO BOW TO WASHINGTON'S WILL
• THE ROLE OF ALOOF BUT VIGILANT SUPERPOWER, NOT A HEGEMONIC SUPERPOWER, IS ONE THAT IS SUSTAINABLE BY THE UNITED STATES OVER A LONGER TERM
• IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TAKING PLACE THIS DAY, U.S. VOTERS ARE EXPRESSING THEIR VIEW ON WHICH MAN IS BEST QUALIFIED TO LEAD THE NATION'S FOREIGN POLICY IN AN INCREASINGLY TURBULENT WORLD

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